Process-Oriented Evaluation of Climate and Weather Forecasting Models

Weather and Climate Forecasting

The Biblical quotation above is an ancient example of attempting to make meteorological predictions based on empirical observations. The idea it contains tends to work as a forecasting scheme, and it has been expressed in many different ways in the subsequent 2,000 years. it is one of many sayings and rhymes of folklore that provide a qualitative description of the weather. In the 17th century,...

Model error in weather and climate forecasting

We review various interpretations of the phrase “model error”, choosing to focus here on how to quantify and minimise the cumulative effect of model “imperfections” that either have not been eliminated because of incomplete observations/understanding or cannot be eliminated because they are intrinsic to the model’s structure. We will not provide a recipe for eliminating these imperfections, but...

The representation of clouds and convection in weather forecasting and climate models

Weather , Climate , and Hydrologic Forecasting for the Southwest U

....................................................................................................................................... 8 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 8 Weather Forecasts ....................................................................................................

Dynamic Mental Models in Weather Forecasting

There are many definitions, descriptions, and usages of the term “mental model.” Frequently, the definition of mental model is not described, leaving what the author means as an exercise for the reader. I propose a very explicit definition for a dynamic mental model and then show how that definition can be applied in the domain of meteorological forecasting. Specifically, I suggest that a dynam...